Chapter Learning Journal

Interesting points in the chapter:

Under "Practical considerations relating to participant observations" Access approach involves intense involvement of the researcher in the field thus it is interesting that time commitment to the research is always a first hurdle as it is always difficult to do it fast. In cases where the researcher has no any other role in the organization being studied there will probably be protracted negations to allow this kind of long term access.

In the practical issues relating to the interview, it is interesting to note that the interviewer and the interviewee are always in a face-to face dimension under the structured approach ,for the unstructured approach they basically go in-depth in order to discover much more about the interviewee. Focus is given in what they think and say rather than how they answer specific questions. The Interviewer manages the process leading to the interviewee experiencing few constraints.

In the practical issues relating to focus groups, it is interesting that there are always several participants, the researcher as a facilitator and a method of recording what is said, preferably video recording as audio can be very difficult to follow when several people are talking. Video recording will also give much ricer contextual evidence about how people interact, however resistance to video recording is much greater than audio recording.

Points not understood in the chapter:

Under "Cover and overt research" If the research is undertaken covertly that is without authority, problems of access and reactivity disappear, however one fails to understand why a number of others appear instead. This creates anxiety about possible discovery of the researcher role and activities, anxiety which is well founded, since if the convert research is discovered, there is strong chance the study will be abandoned before completion.

In the interview guide approach, advance questions prepared before the interviews are very important as they aim to achieve both research outcomes consistency and professionalism in the interview approach. However being over dependent on pre- prepared interview questions can be dangerous. One fails to understand if a professional interviewer is genuinely interested in the interviewee's perspective and since they will flex the questions to follow new directions suggested by the interviewee.

Under Practical issues relation to focus groups, focus groups are not easy to run although with practice they get easier, they can be creative places but can also be full of challenge and conflict- this needs a light touch of management to ensure good standards of communication and respect are practiced. One fails to understand why conflict is discouraged but on the hand other the same conflict is viewed as productive source of creativity and meaningful development.  

Interesting points in the chapter:

Surprisingly few research methods books contain sections on forecasting trends because in business this is a key activity, it is simply because predicting and forecasting is very risky business, and rigorous research aims to avoid very high risk strategies.  Yet people do, of course predict trends. Management gurus and writers often aim to identify what is about to happen in business. They might be seen as credible people and one may be persuaded by their predictions but reality often proves them wrong. But some predictions in business for instance new product development is always highly risky but is engaged in order to develop profit streams, deal with product life cycles and develop businesses.

Under existing methodologies for forecasting, it is interesting to see that managers often use numerical data in an initiative way using their judgment and experience (or the toss of a coin!) to predict how trends will move. This behavior is so widespread in the business community because these managers seem to be seduced by number and react emotionally to it- usually seeing it as important because it is a number, whether it is or not.

Under Creative techniques, the techniques are used broadly where there is lack of historical data. For example, how can one extrapolate trends for new technologies which have only just arrived? The answer interestingly is to use the human brain to make connections between the forecasting problem and other knowledge.

Points not understood in the chapter:

Scenario building is another creative technique in future forecasting. They are built on some historical information plus subjective interpretations, hunches and specific assumptions. Their purpose is not necessarily to provide accurate predictions but to challenge linear models of predictions, since actual change is not usually linear, but one fails to understand why since most predictive methods produce linear outcomes.

Under "exploring the value of forecasting methods in business practice" statistical methods of forecasting are not widely used in business as we might expect. Moving average and exponential smoothing plus regression are the most widely known methods. Time series methods are generally found to be more accurate in prediction than explanatory models e.g. using regression. One fails to understand why the latter is seen by managers to be the most effective.

Under "Why forecasting is not widely covered in the business research methods literature" One can surely do better when forecasting something one knows about- such as next year's company sales figures. The evidence shows that in fact one is poor in predicting even figures with which one is intimately involved and which directly affect a company's future. One fails to understand why personal views and impacts are confused with professional forecasts.