The primary objective of the article ‘Options for Fertility Policy Transition in China’ by Zeng Yi is the consequences of strict fertility policy employed in China, which necessitates for the fertility policy transition. The article has conducted a good analysis aimed at showing the necessity of changing the current fertility policy. Different policy options have been analyzed and their suggestions presented in the article. The article has begun with analyzing the current debates by scholars and researchers on options for fertility policy transition. These debates have offered different options of fertility policies, which can be adapted by ?hina with an aim of eliminating the problems presented by the current fertility policy.
The author has managed to effectively address the significance of fertility policy transition through methods and procedures used. The use of a ProFam model to predict the effects of all the options of fertility policy transition was very crucial because the predictions were long term (up to 2080), thus, there is enough time to decide which option to follow. The options which were analyzed by this article include: retaining current policy, two children for only-child couples, the two children with late childbearing soft-landing, the two children with constant mean age at birth, and the two children with one-year decline in the mean at birth. A comparative analysis has provided the effects of all the options including population change, percentage of elderly and elderly living alone, elderly dependency ratio and total dependency ratio, labor force, and the pension deficit rate. The study has showed that the “two children with late childbearing soft landing” option of the fertility transition is the best one to implement.
The appearance of the article is well done. It presents the quantitative data using statistical analysis methods such as graphs that make this article even more presentable and easy to follow. Graphical method used to display the research data helps the readers to easily visualize or comprehend data presented without any assistance. The language used in this article is very simple without jargon words and this assists readers to understand the essence of the study. The description of the study in a simple language facilitates the understanding of the subject matter of the article. In text citation of primary and secondary sources as well as the bibliography is well done showing the reliability of the research. The citations and the reference list provided give the readers an opportunity to go back to the original studies to find out more on the studies reviewed in this article. The format employed is excellent as it allows free flow of ideas brought out in the study. The flow of ideas is further enhanced by the use of end notes which clarify more issues used in the study.
This article is well written and I would recommend it to anyone who is interested in knowing about the fertility policy in China. Since the article has recommended transition of the current fertility policy in China, a reader would understand the reasons behind this recommendation when he/she goes through it. Anyone who has read this article would agree with me that, China needs to reconsider changing of the current fertility policy in order to sustain its socioeconomic development. Therefore, the article provides a frame work upon which other studies can be based on.
In conclusion, the article has presented the essence of implementing new fertility policy in China. It has presented different options of fertility transition and the best option which was shown to be feasible is the “two children with late childbearing soft-landing”. The author has presented the document very well and it is written using simple language making it easier for anyone interested to understand its subject matter.